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US unemployment data: Fed won’t increase interest rates in October

It seems the weak September report on the labor market status will serve as one of those factors which can be used by the Fed to explain why there is no sense in interest rates increase on November meeting taking place on the week before the president selections. The received data can cause the uncertainty growth too in relation to the interest rate increase in December or in this year at all.


Generally, the report (in which we can observe some unemployment growth (to the level of 5.0%)), complies with the matters reviewed by the Fed head Janette Yellen during the latest meeting.


Many applicants of the labor market find the desired vacancies finally, though not everyone. The number of citizens having the official employment increased by 354,000 in September. Wherein, the number of officially unemployment people grew by 90,000. It is natural that unemployment number increase caused some unemployment growth.


Yellen considers the fact that people back to job searching as a good signal. During the definite period of time, the economic activity was falling as many citizens left their search. But the situation had changed later. In September, the growth of economic activity of citizens was fixed within 0.5% against the analogical period of 2015 to the level of 62.9% that indicated the optimism growth among the applicants.


The number of bodied citizens increase is a signal for the employment market indicating it is still far from overheat. This is the support of the Fed plans on careful monetary politics normalization.


The regular Fed meeting takes place on 1st and 2nd of September, and on 8th of November there takes place the president selections. Considering the scope confirmed by the latest report on labor market, the option on the interest rates increase in November is excluded practically. The rates increase in December seems to be more probable for now, but it is not confirmed information. If unemployment continues the growth, then we won’t see any Fed actions this year.