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Significant number of experts keeps to the pessimistic forecasts in relation to the world economic perspectives. Though, some American companies can look to the future more optimistically.
On the previous week, the regular Fed meeting took place, where the gloomy enough forecast on world GDP growth was published. By results of this year, the growth is expected within 3.1%. The next year growth is expected within 3.4%. As a comparison, it can be reminded the fact of amounting of the world GDP average growth within 3.7% for the last 10-year period, where the crisis of 2008 has fallen. Another thing is worse – the forecast publishing by the Fed appears to be the overvalued often.
This data also considers inflation changes. The growth evaluations (non-considering inflation index in dollar terms) differ much. According to such calculations the world GDP growth will amount 5.7% against 2.2% in the current year.
Saying more, the Fed consider the increased GDP out of the US limits in money terms to appear at the level 6.2%, whereas it has to appear at the level of 4.4% in the US. In the current year, American economics grew quicker than the world economics non-considering the US. In 2015 the scene is another: GDP out of the US limits decreased in money terms under the influence of weak economics of the main world states, currencies and raw material prices.
For many big American companies, the positive economic perspectives of its foreign partners can appear to be the one of the key factors. The Apple Company, taking the first place in the list of the most expensive American companies, generates 2/3 of all the income out of the US territory. The second by significance company of America is the Alphabet. It takes more than a half of its income from abroad.
The Fed forecast is the flexible thing, so everything can be changed again. The raw material prices are able to continue the bearish movement that puts the negative impact to the states which economics depends more on raw materials export. Besides, China economics can fall under the new risks influence spread on the other developing states.
The currency risks exist also. It is not possible for now to give the proper forecast in relation to currencies exchange rates. But it’s possible to imagine the situation, when the Fed increases the rates and other regulators initiate its monetary politics aggressive softening. This case, we will observe the growing demand for American currency. Of course, the pound fall by 20% nearly against the previous year on a background of the referendum taken place in June puts the companies connected with the UK to a very awkward position.
But in case if the situation to develop no in the way expected by the Fed, there is the probability of non-USA economic growth to appear higher in money terms in 2017, than in the current year.