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Chicago Fed national activity reaches positive territory

The US economy demonstrated in April a growth of activity on the background of increasing production in industrial sector. It can be said that the US economy starts rising after a weak beginning of the year, according to report released by Fed Chicago.


Chicago Fed national activity index reached in April a positive territory at 0.10 the first time for the last three months after downward revision for March at minus 0.55.


This index contains 85 subindices, which are divided by four categories. The index characterises a national economic activity and inflation.


According to the latest GDP estimate for the previous quarter, the US economy stopped growing at 0.5% YoY, which is a 2-year minimum. However, Chicago Fed index became higher than level minus 0.70, after which recession risks are rising.


Industrial production – a wide characteristic that reflects all production released by companies in industry sector, mining and municipal organisations – gained in April 0.7%, which is a record for the last year and a half.


Other indices for April demonstrated a growth, but could not break a negative territory, partially levelled positive industrial figures. Employment rose from minus 0.04 to minus 0.02 because of 5% unemployment.


Another important index –  new homes – rose in April on the background of high volumes in construction sector. At that time, building approvals were insignificant, which put a negative impact on private consumption and housing sector.


In general, 45 indices included in calculation put positive impact versus 40 indices with negative impact. Fifty four indices demonstrated positive changes versus March.